In the Agora Strategy Group geopolitics podcast “The Future of Power”, Dr. Timo Blenk (CEO) invites decision-makers from diplomacy, business, politics and the military to discuss current geopolitical developments on a monthly basis. The goal of this project is to provide information about the influences of these developments and to create a sound basis for decision-making.   This month, two in-house experts from the Agora Strategy Institute, former Ambassador Dr. Peter Ammon and Dr. Cornelius Adebahr, share their analysis! In the 27th episode of our podcast, Dr. Blenk and former Ambassador Dr. Ammon as well as Dr. Adebahr talk about the current developments in the USA and their effects on the world!   The most important topics of the month The USA in transition: Trumpnomics, ideology & autocratic tendencies The great power game: strength, lost soft power and the art of the “deal” And Europe? New alliances and old questions about nuclear weapons     House announcements All other episodes of the podcast Agora Strategy website Agora Strategy on LinkedIn Current projects & events of the Agora Strategy team our COO, Fabian Vetter im brandeins Magazin Agora Strategy Risk Report 2025 Agora Strategy Institute Executive M embership Dean's Comment: Dr. Peter Ammon zu Trumps Comeback You can also find our podcast with subtitles on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1rgypOzy2o

Agora Strategy Executive Briefing on US policy reversal Executive Summary The current dynamic between Russia and the United States is likely to have negative short-term consequences for Ukraine but is unlikely to overcome deep-rooted mistrust of the West or structural economic problems in Russia. If the Trump administration's goal is to coax Russia out of its partnership with China, it risks misjudging the latter’s solidity, leaving Washington vulnerable to being manipulated by Russia. Irrespective of its specifics, a U.S.-Russia deal on Ukraine will have far-reaching consequences for great power relations across the globe, including for China’s stance on Taiwan and the potential nuclearization of Japan and South Korea. Implications for International Business Trump’s unprecedented advances to Putin do not change the Russian economy’s fundamental dynamics and risks. Businesses should exercise caution and avoid prematurely reconfiguring their investment approach towards the Russian market and supply chain strategies based solely on the current diplomatic dynamics. Companies should focus on maintaining diverse supply sources, identifying new avenues for acquiring raw materials and rare earth elements, and developing robust strategies to mitigate the risks posed by escalating trade wars – and, potentially, new military conflicts. State of Play America making advances to Russia at Ukraine’s cost The apparent recalibration of American-Russian relations continues with neck-breaking speed. In fact, U.S. President Donald Trump is keen to meet his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, considered a pariah in the West until recently after his assault on Ukraine, without receiving any concessions. Yet, a genuine thaw is by no means guaranteed, as both sides have drastically different expectations: While Russia wants U.S. acquiescence on the expansion of its sphere of influence in Europe, beginning with maximalist demands on Ukraine, the Trump administration wants to use Russia in its confrontation with China, peeling off the Sino-Russian relationship to isolate Beijing. Until both parties realize the limits of their rapprochement, actual alignment will be difficult – and many initiatives will rather cause frustration. The short-term effect on Ukraine of this potentially long-term realignment will largely depend on how President Volodymyr Zelensky can navigate his personal relationship with Trump. The latter has suspended and then reinstated military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine, underscoring his incalculability and his ruthlessness. The threat of another holdup, even if not felt immediately on the battlefield, will hang over the coming negotiations. Under any scenario, the main – if not sole – burden of supporting Ukraine is now on Europe's shoulders. China, in contrast is capitalizing on the US-European divide to steer the EU away from a confrontational stance in their relations.   Key Issues Geopolitical implications for Europe and the world The resumption of direct negotiations holds greater significance for Russia than for the United States. Moscow stands to gain several strategic advantages: a widening rift between Washington and its European allies, potential leverage over Ukraine, and a restored superpower status no longer isolated by the West. While Trump himself may see a gain in projecting the image of a peacemaker, this is largely symbolic. More concerning is the – not yet confirmed – assumption that his goal is the subjugation of Europe, no longer “whole and free”, under the thumb of two global powers. The pressure on European capitals, nonetheless, is real: If, over the past decade or so, Russia and China sought to divide Europe, now the United States is in that game, too.   As a first step, Washington will attempt to impose a 'peace deal' on Ukraine, with little European and involuntary Ukrainian involvement. While this may not fully satisfy Russia's objectives, a ceasefire combined with the lack of robust security guarantees for Ukraine and a forced leadership change in Kyiv would give Moscow enough of a victory and provide it with a pause to rebuild its military capabilities for future action. The bigger picture revolves around Trump’s alleged ‘reverse-Kissinger’ strategy, i.e. the attempt to isolate China by cozying to Russia. However, despite sending soft signals, Moscow will not abandon Beijing; rather, it will try to outplay Trump.   In fact, China’s strategic importance for Russia cannot be overestimated. Going far beyond shared grievances about U.S. dominance, there are solid reasons for close Sino-Russian partnership: a long mutual border, economic compatibility, and non-democratic regime characteristics. Moreover, in the last three years, Russia has become highly dependent on China, which accounts for 40 percent of its imports and 30 percent of its exports. Reversing this economic dependence would require coordinated efforts by Americans and Europeans to increase bilateral trade with Russia, which is hard to envisage even under a pro-Russian Trump approach. At the same time, certain aspects of Trump’s handling of the war in Ukraine could be incorporated into a broader Sino-American agreement, including on Taiwan. Given his transactional, business-oriented approach to foreign policy, he might turn U.S. support for the self-governing island into a bargaining chip to secure concessions from China on other matters, such as reduced tariffs on American products, eased market access for U.S. companies, or commitments to increase imports of American produce. Concretely, Beijing might halt its investigations of companies like Google or agree to specific quantities of U.S. agricultural imports, as during the first trade war.   The consequences of such an unprecedented move would be far-reaching, ending any semblance of U.S. security guarantees in East Asia. This would push states like Japan and South Korea to ponder immediate nuclearization to establish a deterrent. Still, the demise of the rules-based, liberal world order need not be definitive. Although international institutions struggle with global conflicts, they maintain a role in regulating state behavior, as the continued pretense of democratic legitimacy by nations like Russia and China underscores.   At global level, China will double down on its display as an anchor of stability compared to America under Trump. Its emergence as the primary provider of financial resources, coupled with its expanding global presence, will translate its economic leverage into political influence. Especially smaller countries in the Global South are likely to seek closer ties with Beijing, while middle powers will strive to avoid being caught in the superpower confrontation. European countries will need to adapt to this new reality by proactively engaging with China in third countries. At the same time, all countries will have to adjust to the new great power rules, from economic sanctions to imposed conflict resolution to outrights threats. This will foster regionalization, as middle powers seek a distance from conflictual power dynamics and establish regional frameworks with other states. The geoeconomics of a ceasefire and sanctions relief While a partial easing of U.S. sanctions against Russia is possible, complete removal remains improbable. Not only will Washington want to retain some leverage over the Kremlin; some sanctions have indeed been enshrined by Congress and are therefore difficult to undo. Nor is pressuring the EU to lift sanctions likely to succeed. Ukraine's economic recovery, in turn, will be severely challenged by the widespread damage to critical infrastructure. Moreover, a cessation of hostilities could trigger the eruption of social grievances that have been largely ignored or suppressed during the war.   Even if Trump manages to reach a deal with Putin, it will not significantly affect economic integration or competition in Eurasia. Russia has proven to be a state with a hazardous investment climate. Its economy, structurally transformed over the past three years, cannot easily return to pre-war conditions: Its dependence on China and on its own military industry, tied to the war against Ukraine, will remain significant. New laws and realities allow the Kremlin to seize the assets of any investor, even those who previously had guarantees from powerful figures. So, while Russia will continue to integrate its economy with countries it considers friendly, it will face problems since even China is reluctant to invest in unstable economies.   Even with an unexpected warming of U.S.-Russia political relations, the fundamental negative trends will remain. Europe should focus on diversifying suppliers, strengthening economic resilience, ensuring access to critical raw materials and rare earth elements, and formulating strategies to withstand new trade wars. To prepare, companies should invest in technologies that improve supply chain and agility and proactively seek partnerships with diverse nations to broaden their supplier base. Investments in defense industrial base and deterrence capabilities will also be crucial to safeguard peace in Europe. Businesses should also expect greater volatility of the major powers’ currencies, first and foremost the U.S. dollar, as well as of the U.S. stock market. Given China’s and Russia’s efforts to create tools for undermining American sanctions, including trade in national currencies, alternative payment systems, and mechanisms for sanctions evasion, companies should examine their current exposure to the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan. They should experiment with other currencies and payment hubs depending on their major export markets – tough costly, these measures help them prepare for further fragmentation of the global financial system.

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We are looking for curious, analytical thinkers with a strong interest in global politics, an entrepreneurial mindset, and the ambition to help grow our footprint with our clients' interests in mind. Career in Political Consulting We are looking for curious, analytical thinkers with a strong interest in global politics, an entrepreneurial mindset, and the ambition to help grow our footprint with our clients' interests in mind. What we are looking for We are convinced that excellent results can only be achieved with highly motivated and curious employees. Through the commitment, integrity, and drive of our dynamic team, we achieve the best possible result for our clients. Above all, open-mindedness, respect, tolerance, and an analytical, forward-looking attitude are essential to us. We also attach great importance to diversity in our team. We are looking for candidates with a strong understanding of geopolitical dynamics and political processes as well as a comprehensive understanding of client-specific needs from industry, data and tech, the public sector, or finance and investment. We particularly value candidates with an entrepreneurial mindset and a hands-on approach who are interested in geostrategic issues and in analyzing global interrelations. Fluency in English, excellent grades, and relevant professional experience are required. Knowledge of other foreign languages, especially Arabic, Mandarin, French, Russian, or Spanish is an advantage. Open positions Intern in Berlin and Munich What we need Cover letter outlining your interest and relevant prior experience Curriculum Vitae Transcripts (high school diploma and university transcripts) References (from previous positions and internships) Your application If you are looking for a highly motivated team, a stimulating work environment and a place where you can develop new ideas and perspectives for the benefit of global actors, we will be pleased to receive your application! Fabian Vetter COO & Partner Contact Home / About us / Career /

Founded by Ambassador (ret.) Wolfgang Ischinger, the strategy consultancy focuses on geopolitical risk analysis, political advocacy and business diplomacy. Code of Conduct Successful action in a networked world requires a deep understanding of the political environment. Agora Strategy supports companies in geopolitical challenges through political risk analysis, strategic consulting and crisis management. As a consulting organization, Agora attaches great importance to a strong compliance structure and law-abiding behavior. Download Code of Conduct PDF, 102 KB About us - Strategy consulting in Munich and Berlin Navigating today's interconnected and complex world successfully requires a deep understanding of the geopolitical environment. Agora Strategy is a geopolitical consulting firm specializing in political risk analysis, strategic political advisory and international crisis management. Our holistic approach incorporates political, social and economic aspects into the assessment of global risks. Agora Strategy was founded in 2015 by Ambassador (ret.) Wolfgang Ischinger and other leading experts from politics, business and diplomacy. Since its foundation, Agora Strategy's strategic advisory has focused on assessing and advising on global geopolitical developments. Meet our Team Management Team Dr. Timo Blenk Senior Partner, Agora Strategy Group Dr. Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp Director, Agora Strategy Institute Prof. Dr. Kai Andrejewski Senior Partner, Agora Strategy Group Fabian Vetter Partner, Agora Strategy Group Leonard Wessendorff Associate Partner, Agora Strategy Group Pierre Lellouche Associate Partner, Agora Strategy Group Supervisory Board Prof. Dr. Kurt Lauk Chairman of the Supervisory Board, Agora Strategy Group Sandra Deutschländer Member of the Supervisory Board, Agora Strategy Group Mariel von Schumann Member of the Supervisory Board, Agora Strategy Group Dr. Harald Braun Member of the Supervisory Board, Agora Strategy Group Prof. Dr. h.c. Wolfgang Ischinger Founder and Honorary Chairman, Agora Strategy Group Selected Senior Advisors & Fellows Dr. Gerhard Conrad Jasmine El-Gamal General a.D.Hans-Lothar Domröse Jovan Ratkovic Nicola Brüning Al-Sharif Nasser bin Nasser Dr. Cornelius Adebahr Your career at Agora Strategy We are looking for curious, analytically minded people with a strong interest in global politics, entrepreneurial thinking and the ambition to expand our presence on behalf of our clients. Start your career now Berlin Pariser Platz 6 10117 Berlin Munich Residenzstraße 7 80333 München Brussels Rond-point Robert Schuman 2–4 1040 Brüssel Pin Pin Pin Pin Paris 10 Avenue Kléber 75116 Paris Home / About us /