What do geopolitics and financial strategies have in common? More than you might think, says our new Senior Partner Prof. Dr. Kai Andrejewski in an interview with Dr. Timo Blenk. What motivated you to change industries (from SIXT SE to Agora Strategy)? In my role as CFO of SIXT SE, one of my main responsibilities was to develop the company's equity and debt story - in other words, the capital market story. In the process, points of intersection repeatedly arose that made it clear to me that a well-founded geopolitical analysis is the basic prerequisite for this. Therefore, the move to Agora Strategy was a further development in terms of content. Furthermore, I am personally convinced that it is always exciting to develop new perspectives professionally. SIXT is also a very innovative company, so in this regard, not much has changed. In your experience, what geopolitical factors influence the financial strategies of international companies? A company's capital market strategy must take geopolitical conditions into account. This starts with differences in regulation in the USA and Europe. More importantly, however, every financial policy decision has geopolitical implications. For example, can an IPO in the USA go hand in hand with a Chinese-dominated supply chain? What role does geopolitics play in investment decisions today? For one, there are extensive regulatory interdependencies here. For European companies, the focus is even broader. Profit maximization must be reconciled with the restrictive European rules. In addition, geopolitical risks and opportunities must also be taken into account. For example, a differentiated tax and customs regime in the USA can also offer arbitrage opportunities. How do you develop resilient financial strategies in uncertain times? The “little basics” in terms of liquidity and performance remain fundamentally unaffected. However, globally active European companies must bear in mind that the capital market is not unconditionally global. They should therefore focus on internationalization on both the debt and equity side. This starts with a differentiated banking landscape and extends to location and tax optimization. Which geopolitical trend currently has the greatest influence on global markets? The effect of a changing global rule-based order to a multipolar environment is not stopping at the global markets, but especially not at the financial markets. The feedback loops that have not yet received much attention will be particularly interesting here. To what extent can American investors continue to invest in European companies that put sustainability targets before profitability targets? And how can European companies stay competitive against american companies, especially if the U.S. moves faster toward deregulation?

In the Agora Strategy Group geopolitics podcast “The Future of Power”, Dr. Timo Blenk (CEO) invites decision-makers from diplomacy, business, politics and the military to discuss current geopolitical developments on a monthly basis. The core of this project is to provide information about the influences of these developments and to create a sound basis for decision-making. In this 23rd episode, Dr. Timo Blenk and Prof. Dr. Kai Andrejewski, both Senior Partners at Agora Strategy Group, address your questions, analyze current developments and discuss practical measures that companies should take now. The episode was moderated by Christina Schäfer, Consultant at the Agora Strategy Group.   The most important topics of the month (see description) From A for automotive industry to Z for cohesion in Europe: all-round geopolitics & companies The transatlantic relationship in transition: Trump 2.0 - challenges & opportunities European priorities: Defense & common priorities Keeping an eye on: India, satellite technology, water, demographics & financial crises   House announcements All further episodes of the podcast Agora Strategy in the web Agora Strategy on LinkedIn Current projects & events of the Agora Strategy team Agora Institute Executive Membership Dean's Comment: Dr. Peter Ammon zu Trumps Comeback New publication by Dr. Elli Pohlkamp - Südkorea & Japan For English subtitles please find our podcast on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neqLZROCf0E

In the Agora Strategy geopolitics podcast “The Future of Power”, Dr. Timo Blenk (CEO) invites decision-makers from diplomacy, business, politics and the military to discuss current geopolitical developments on a monthly basis. The core of this project is to provide information about the influences of these developments and to create a sound basis for decision-making. This month's guest was Mr. Stefan Kornelius, head of the political section of the Süddeutsche Zeitung! In the 24th episode of our podcast, Dr. Blenk and Mr. Kornelius talk about the background to the current headlines!   The most important topics of the month USA - Great power without direction? Self-denial, transactional politics and the exhaustion of liberalism. The future of the EU: Between criticism of bureaucracy, the challenge in the East and beyond, and a crumbling promise. Media in upheaval: News fatigue, atomization and the role of AI - how journalism is changing. Germany 2025: Between personnel and coalition issues.  House announcements All further episodes of the podcast Agora Strategy in the web Agora Strategy on LinkedIn Current projects & events of the Agora Strategy team Agora Institute Executive Membership Dean's Comment: Dr. Peter Ammon zu Trumps Comeback New publication by Dr. Elli Pohlkamp - Südkorea & Japan For English subtitles please find our podcast on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNYbun-ORPY

Dr. Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp is Director at the Agora Strategy Group and Director of the Agora Strategy Institute. She is also a Visiting Fellow of the Asia Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.   Previously, she worked as a Japan analyst in Munich, as a policy fellow at the Progressive Center Berlin, as a research assistant and Forum Ebenhausen fellow at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP Berlin) and as a project officer in the Europe and International Affairs Department of the Hessian State Chancellery in Wiesbaden. She holds a doctorate from the University of Tübingen and was a doctoral candidate at the German Institute for Japanese Studies in Tokyo. Her areas of expertise are Japan's foreign, economic and security policy, EU-Japan, Japan-Korea and China-Japan relations, as well as geostrategies in the Indo-Pacific. Expertise Politics and economy of East Asia, Japanese foreign relations, security and defense policy, strategies in the Indo-Pacific region, relations between the EU, Germany and Japan, China-Japan relations. Auswahl an Publikationen und Podcasts What Europe can learn from Japan’s approach to the global south The new central front: Japan’s special role in the West’s strategic rivalry with China Agora Strategy Podcast The Future of Power - Die Rolle Japans als geopolitischer Akteur The weight of history: Why the recent thaw in South Korea-Japan relations may not last Setting the course: Japan's new security strategy

Dr Cornelius Adebahr is Senior Fellow and Editor of the Agora Strategy Institute. In addition, he works as a political analyst and consultant based in Berlin and Rome. His expertise is on foreign and security policy, in particular regarding Iran and the Persian Gulf, as well as on European and transatlantic affairs. His clients encompass political institutions, businesses and civil society organisations as well as international think tanks.   Adebahr is an adjunct faculty at the Hertie School in Berlin. Previously, he taught at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, Willy Brandt School of Public Policy in Erfurt, and Tehran University in Iran. He frequently publishes in, and is cited by, international media such as New York Times, Washington Post, POLITICO, BBC, CNN, Euronews, and Al Jazeera. Expertise Geopolitical challenges, Strategic Foresight, European Union and USA, Iran and the Middle East Auswahl an Publikationen und Podcasts Agora Strategy Podcast The Future of Power - Schattenspiele im Nahen Osten – Der Iran und seine geopolitische Agenda If this is Israel’s 9/11, it must not make same mistakes the US did Why AI will Change the Core of Foreign Policymaking Wofür lohnt es sich zu kämpfen? Why water scarcity in Iran is a source of domestic and regional instability. Trump’s ‘virtual reality’ foreign policy Towards a New Balkans Diplomacy The Rewriting of Global Rules, as Seen from India

Executive Summary In the context of growing turbulence around the world, Latin America stands out as a region of low geopolitical risk, where most governments, including Brazil and Mexico, pursue a “multi-aligned strategy” that does not take sides. This helps to attract investors keen to diversify their portfolios and increase their resilience. Brazil positions itself as a key player in the global energy transition, both as a source of critical minerals and a destination of “greenshoring” investments. However, it is also massively ramping up oil production as is set to become the world’s sixth largest producer by 2030. Mexico gained from its long-standing open trade policy and solid manufacturing base, with the potential to hugely benefit from US nearshoring. It also made progress on reducing inequality, but faces major uncertainties from the US election, the risk of democratic backsliding, and continued domestic insecurity. Implications for International Business European firms have the opportunity to capitalize on both Brazil’s and Mexico’s push to diversify both their economies to retain strategic flexibility amidst the risk of a renewed trade war between the United States and China. Brazil and Mexico are promising business hubs, especially in trade, manufacturing, and renewable energy, though a fragile security situation is unlikely to be resolved. The ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade deal, increasingly likely by the end of 2024, would create the world’s largest free trade area of 780 million people and facilitate European investments in Brazil. State of Play Great power competition and global supply chains shape business opportunities in Latin America Latin American countries have more relevant economic ties outside the region than within, each engaging with China and the United States on their own terms. As Washington becomes less open and lacks a clear strategy vis-à-vis its southern neighbors, Beijing is advancing, creating new economic dependencies but without crowding out others. European trade and investment is largely seen as less politically fraught, while more unequal trade with China tends to elicit greater fears about deindustrialization.   Nearshoring and shifts in global supply chains are set to produce expansion and a competitive environment in Latin America across sectors such as manufacturing, electronics, automotive, renewable energy, and resource extraction, especially of critical raw materials. The US Inflation Reduction Act is a source of competition for investments in green energy and electric vehicles, particularly in Mexico and in mineral-rich countries. There is nonetheless an open path for European companies for greater engagement in the region, given stable and trusted EU-Latin America relationships, the region’s needs of diversification, and the new opportunity provided by the hoped-for conclusion of the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement this year. Key Issues Brazil: Multipolarity does not mean diversification Brazil maintains balanced foreign and trade relations while it seeks to benefit from a more diverse world economy, aiming to become an influential voice in the Global South. While its BRICS membership serves to advance a multipolar order which includes initiatives to seek alternatives to the dollar when trading with countries like China, it also cooperates with OECD countries on numerous fronts and has recently decided not to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Within the BRICS grouping, Brazil is, alongside India, the moderating force that opposes the more explicitly anti-Western faction led by Russia, China and Iran.    The Brazilian economy benefits from shifting global supply chains, particularly in the manufacturing and logistics sectors. The government under President Lula actively seeks foreign investment in infrastructure, among others through the New Growth Acceleration Program. It has also pushed through a historic tax reform, though concerns about fiscal sustainability remain. As Brazil strives to lead on environmental sustainability, Europe is an important partner for technology investments and export diversification.   Amid global concerns about food security, Brazil’s agricultural sector is expected to grow, providing opportunities for sustainable agriculture and agri-tech innovations. Already well-positioned in the Chinese market, there will be more diversification efforts to reduce overreliance on China’s demand for agricultural commodities. Total investments from the United States and EU countries, respectively, are larger than Chinese investments in Brazil, but increasing trade dependence on China explain a willingness to diversify and reduce strategic vulnerabilities. ESG initiatives can find opportunities in Brazil given its renewable energy sector and its global relevance in environmental sustainability. In tech, the country provides an increasing start-up network to be harnessed by foreign firms. Organized crime remains a continuous challenge and threatens to permeate political institutions, though murder rates have recently fallen. Mexico: Externally driven growth, democratic backsliding and uncertainty over US policy Amid high domestic insecurity, President Claudia Sheinbaum won a landslide victory promising to continue the previous government’s populist leftist policies. However, many of these – including unfunded social spending, weak human rights protection and the introduction of popular elections for justices – have been roundly criticized by the opposition and investors. Hailed by Scheinbaum as the possibility to build “the true rule of law”, the reforms may pose a risk to the independence of the judiciary and produce legal uncertainty for investors. A politicized judiciary that is vulnerable to criminal groups will make businesses more reliant on personal relations with the government and imply lower prospects of a fair trial, if required. The result of the first cycle of election for the Judiciary in mid-2025 may affect domestic and foreign investments, as will any other measures reflecting or deepening the executive’s uncontested power.   Still, the new government can be expected to be pragmatic, with a strong focus on bolstering Mexico’s role within the North American business sphere. This approach will be put to the test if Donald Trump returns to the White House. The softest baseline scenario includes strict national security measures permeating US economic policy, but more likely is a harsh protectionist approach including steep tariffs. At the same time, the USMCA trade agreement acts as an important constraint on Mexico building out its trade and relationships with China. This could be an incentive for the next US president to renew, possibly with some changes, the trilateral trade deal when it is up for review in 2026. While outgoing president Lopez Obrador doubled down on fossil fuels, Sheinbaum, a climate scientist, can be expected to boost investment in renewable energies and emphasize decarbonization.   As Mexico’s second-largest trading partner with an annual bilateral volume of around US$100 billion, China has an important presence as a supplier in electronics, automotive, and consumer goods. Nevertheless, Mexico offers a diversification destination for European companies, while the latter can help the country reduce its reliance on Chinese imports or investments. Shifting supply chains away from China has the potential to drive Mexico’s growth as a nearshoring hub for trade, manufacturing, and technology, with e-commerce and innovations in cross-border logistics on the rise. Prominent sectors for European firms are the automotive, electronics and aerospace, which benefit from these trends as well as cost-effective operations to serve not just the Mexican but also the US market.

Fabian Vetter is Partner and Chief Operating Officer at the Agora Strategy Group and in this role is responsible for the operational management of the company. In addition, he continues to supervise larger projects with a focus on international industrial companies and government mandates. Previously, he worked in the political department of the BMW Group in Munich, among others. Fabian Vetter holds degrees in politics, political economy and history from the universities of Heidelberg, Vienna and Oslo. In addition to a general focus on industrial companies, he specialises in strategy and transformation processes in the context of profound geopolitical change as well as foreign and security policy developments in Eastern Europe and the MENA region. Expertise Operations, Corporate Strategy, Industry Transformation, Geopolitics in Central/Eastern Europe, MENA-Region

Prof. Dr. Kai C. Andrejewski has been a Senior Partner of the Agora Strategy Group since November 1st, 2024. The long-standing Managing Partner and Regional Board Member at KPMG brings profound academic expertise as a university professor, as well as practical, operational expertise to his mandates as a supervisory board member, auditor and consultant of well-known Dax and M-Dax companies, as well as CFO of SIXT SE, a globally and dynamically active company.  With his extensive knowledge as a sustainability and financial strategist, the capital market expert advises CEOs and CFOs, supervisory boards and committees on geopolitical developments and questions of strategic action in increasingly complex global markets. He sees his task above all in making his clients resilient with tailor-made strategies and making use of their strategic opportunities. The so-called "G.E.T Model", which he developed as part of his work for the Think Tank Audit Committee Institute, the impact paragdima of geopolitics, ESG norms and technology development, is a blueprint for consulting and solution approaches.         Expertise Corporate Strategy, Internationalisation and Supply Chain Risk, Global Network Development.

Dr Timo Blenk is a renowned expert in geopolitics and security policy. Timo Blenk has been CEO and Partner of the Agora Strategy Group since 2018. Agora Strategy has developed into the leading German management consultancy for geopolitics - with around 300 experts worldwide. For Agora Strategy, it is crucial to translate geopolitical challenges measurably, concretely and with a clear focus into the strategic actions of companies and to implement them together with the client. This results in significant added value for Agora Strategy's clients.  Accordingly, Dr Blenk currently advises at the interface between business and politics, in particular on strategic issues in the industrial sector, strengthening resilience and crisis management in the face of global challenges. Previously, Dr Timo Blenk was Secretary General of the Swiss Political Science Association (2015-2018) and lecturer at the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich (2014-2015). Dr Timo Blenk received his doctorate from the University of St. Gallen with a dissertation on financial market regulation in the eurozone. Prior to that, he received Master's degrees in International Relations and Economics from the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris and the Free University of Berlin. Expertise Corporate Strategy, Geostrategic Analysis, Internationalisation and Supply Chain Risk, Global Network Development. Selection of publications and podcasts Die sichtbare Hand der Geopolitik Die sieben entscheidenden Meerengen Südamerika: Der Rising-Star-Kontinent Agora Strategy Podcast - The Future of Power

In the Agora Strategy Group geopolitics podcast “The Future of Power”, Dr. Timo Blenk (CEO) invites decision-makers from diplomacy, business, politics and the military to discuss current geopolitical developments on a monthly basis. The core of this project is to provide information about the influences of these developments and to create a sound basis for decision-making. In November, it's your turn: send us your questions about geopolitics and business, which we will then answer in the podcast!   The most important topics of the month New geopolitical era: review of the past two years & outlook for the future Hotspot USA: Presidential & congressional elections Tomorrow's topics: African conflicts, nuclear threat & Pakistan The European project: between opportunities & lack of leadership   In-house announcements  Further episodes of the podcast „Agora Strategy Group“ website „Agora Strategy Group“ on LinkedIn   Current projects & events of the Agora Strategy team Agora Institute exclusive membership For English subtitels please find our podcast on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afDy_J95fXw