In the 33rd episode of the “Turned Around” podcast, Fabian Vetter, COO & Partner of the Agora Strategy Group, discusses the most pressing questions for companies with hosts and transformation experts Michael Hedtstück and Rüdiger Tibbe. How do companies need to position themselves in the face of geopolitical challenges? What measures are conceivable and practicable for more resilient supply chains?

Sandra Deutschländer is a Partner and Managing Director at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and has been a member of the Supervisory Board of Agora Strategy since 2024. She specializes in advising consumer goods companies and clients from the private equity industry. With nearly 20 years of experience in strategic consulting, she possesses expertise along the entire value chain, particularly in growth strategies, brand positioning, and M&A strategies for internationally operating companies.

Former ambassador Prof. Dr h.c. Wolfgang Ischinger is President of the Board of Trustees of the Munich Security Conference Foundation (MSC) and Honorary Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Agora Strategy Group. ​ He chaired the MSC from 2008 to 2022. During his long diplomatic career, he was State Secretary of the Federal Foreign Office and Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany in Washington D.C. and London. Between 2008 and 2015, Ambassador Ischinger was Chief Representative for Government Relations at Allianz SE. Expertise International security policy, global governance, transatlantic relations, diplomacy, European policy

Agora Videoreport zum Thema Japan - Teil 3

Agora Videoreport zum Thema Japan

Executive Summary The World in 2024… …and the key takeaways for International Businesses   Risk #1 |  Elections weakening democracy: In 2024, around half the world’s population will be called to vote. However, this “super-election year” poses great threat to the democratic order and to international cooperation, as nationalist and populist movements are on the rise in many established democracies. Building on and feeding prevalent anti-globalization sentiments, they favor protectionist economic policies, curbs on immigration, and less collaboration. Firms operating globally will therefore face increased trade barriers, regulatory uncertainties, and geopolitical tensions. Risk #2 |  Wars waged, conflicts erupting:  Russia’s war against Ukraine, with its acute threats to European security and a hardening Moscow-Beijing axis, continues to pose a great risk for companies. It has been compounded by Israel’s war against Hamas following the terrorist group’s attack in October, which risks engulfing countries like Lebanon, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, or Iran. Beyond these existing conflagrations, military conflict looms in the Indo-Pacific involving China and Taiwan or the Philippines, which would most certainly draw in the US. Risk #3 |  Tensions from geopolitical rivalry:  The US-China rivalry will deepen, as Washington is seeking new and reassuring old allies, while China and Russia strengthen their ties. Both the de-risking of supply chains, economic diversifi­cation in Asia, and some actors’ attempts to “weaponize” their trade will continue. Countries from the Global South will maintain their balancing act between the two global rivals, though China's business appeal stemming from developing prosperity in an authoritarian system will begin to fade, as companies face specific risks from doing business there. Firms will have to adapt to a growing web of sanctions and countersanctions, especially in the tech sector. Risk #4 |  The disruptive energy transition:  The green transition will continue to affect trade and investment flows, now that the world has officially pledged to phase out fossil fuels by 2050. This will spur massive investments in new tech­nologies and infrastructure, just as the launch of the EU’s adjustment mechanism for carbon-intensive imports will disrupt various sectors. Moreover, certain raw materials that are critical for the energy transition, like lithium, copper, cobalt, and nickel, will give producing countries new leverage. Firms will have to shock-proof their (energy) supply chains, even if oil prices are set to remain steady. Risk #5 |  AI is coming:  The risks posed by the growing use of AI are both short- and long-term, ranging from the inconvenient and detrimental to the potentially existential. They include, with a view to the election year, highly sophisticated disinformation and election meddling. More fundamentally, AI’s military use will affect the strategic stability between nuclear weapons states, the pursuit of war with the introduction of autonomous weapon systems, and the proliferation of new types of weapons, including biological ones. In addition, tech disruptions in space, computing, and cybersecurity, including cyberattacks or ransomware, pose acute risks for companies in 2024. Risk #6 |  Economic uncertainty prevailing : The 2024 landscape of geoeco­nomic trends is characterized by an escalation of sanctions, trade controls, and restrictions, particularly against Russia and China. Additionally, American protectionism, China's economic slowdown, and the EU's loss of competitiveness will increase the likelihood of trade wars. However, amid these challenges, countries and companies can emerge as winners thanks to the global rivals’ increased efforts in “de-risking” and “friend- or near-shoring”. Risk #7 |  Climate change as a meta risk: Companies face a number of climate-related risks in 2024, from acute disasters to chronic problems and the indirect consequences of climate change. For the first half of the year, the El Nino weather system will create dangerous conditions in the Pacific rim and beyond. Crucially, local weather events – like a flood or drought – often exacerbate long-festering problems in food security or transport. These then Impact on the supply chains of international businesses and the political and economic stability of the countries in which firms operate Download the full report:

Agora Videoreport zum Thema Japan - Teil 2

Dr. Peter Ammon takes on the role of Dean of the Agora Strategy Institute Dr. Harald Braun steps down as Dean - but remains Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Agora Strategy Group The former diplomat and State Secretary at the Federal Foreign Office, Dr. Peter Ammon, took over the role of Dean of the Agora Strategy Group's in-house think tank - the Agora Strategy Institute - on February 1st, 2024.   "With Dr. Peter Ammon, the Agora Strategy Institute has a new leader with experience at the most important diplomatic levers in the West. A personality with a deep geopolitical understanding, who has an excellent command of the precise analysis of geopolitical and geo-economic contexts and their translation into information relevant to companies. I look forward to working with him in the future," says Dr. Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp, Director of the Agora Strategy Institute.   Today, Dr. Peter Ammon can look back on a long diplomatic career. He is a former German ambassador to the USA, France and Great Britain and was State Secretary at the Federal Foreign Office. He was also head of the planning staff in the Office of the Federal President and supported the German Chancellor during the G7/G8 negotiations.   "Knowledge of geopolitical contexts, upheavals and opportunities is currently more important for companies than ever before. The Agora Strategy Group and the Agora Strategy Institute act as transmission belts between geopolitical developments and business interests. I look forward to contributing my many years of diplomatic experience to this translation process and to providing new stimuli at the Agora Strategy Institute. I would also like to thank my predecessor Dr. Harald Braun for his commitment and look forward to working more closely with the entire Agora Strategy Group team," says Dr. Peter Ammon.   Dr. Peter Ammon succeeds Dr. Harald Braun, who has held this position since 2017. We would like to thank him for his commitment and the continuous development of the institute as an integral part of the Agora Strategy Service portfolio. Dr. Harald Braun will remain associated with the Agora Strategy Group as Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board.   With this change at the top of the Agora Strategy Institute, the adjustment of the corporate structure to the "Code of Conduct" updated in the previous year has now been completed.   About the Agora Strategy Group With its worldwide network of experts, the Agora Strategy Group is a consultancy specializing in geopolitical risk analysis, business diplomacy and global political positioning strategies. The in-house think tank, the Agora Strategy Institute, headed by former ambassador Dr. Peter Ammon, supports the comprehensive consulting approach with tailor-made analyses and stimulates scientific discourse.