A Global Financial Crisis 2.0? Between Geopolitical Disruption and Financial Fragility

A commentary by Prof. Dr. Kai Andrejewski

Since the global financial crisis of 2008, political and economic decision-makers have relied on a seemingly stable foundation: low interest rates, regulatory oversight, and multilateral rules. However, the tectonic shifts in the geopolitical power structure are introducing new systemic risks – shaking the very core of the global financial system.

Two major developments make a new crisis scenario imaginable – and dangerously realistic:

1. The rules-based financial order is history!

For a long time, global capitalism was defined by legal standards, institutional independence, and market transparency. However, today, we are witnessing an increasing politicization of the financial architecture: the US dollar is being used as a geopolitical instrument of power, central banks are facing political pressure, and alternative monetary forms like stablecoins are circumventing regulatory control. The result: Markets are no longer reacting primarily to economic indicators, but to political signals – a dangerous shift in paradigm.

2. Structural risks: Three continents, one problem

In the U.S., the interest payments on national debt now exceed defense spending. Europe is grappling with an aging population and a funding gap for climate and defense projects. China faces challenges in the form of overcapacities – particularly in e-mobility – and a fragile real estate sector, both of which threaten economic stability. Both regions are following a clear, albeit risky, trend: reducing regulation to generate short-term liquidity – at the cost of long-term stability.

The key insight: A crisis does not have to fully materialize to have real consequences. The mere questioning of entire asset classes, such as intangible assets or government bonds as eligible collateral, can already lead to valuation and liquidity challenges. Companies must therefore ensure that their reported financial figures align with the actual geopolitical and fiscal risks. Too often, there is a disconnect between optimistic earnings forecasts on the one hand, and a growing number of systemic threats on the other hand, such as sanctions, macroeconomic instability, or regulatory interventions. This incoherence can severely undermine the confidence of investors and capital markets, especially in an environment where political developments increasingly have immediate effects on financial markets. Companies are therefore well advised not only to consider geopolitical risks and ESG factors in risk management but also to actively integrate them into balance sheet analyses, investment decisions, and strategic communication. Those who continue to focus solely on efficiency risk losing sight of effectiveness and resilience – both of which become critical competitive factors in times of structural uncertainty.

Resilience pays off—especially in times of crisis

The world is undergoing a phase of strategic uncertainty. Yet, like any crisis, this also presents opportunities for companies that take geopolitical trends seriously and strategically embed financial resilience. Investments in infrastructure, energy, and security are not only reactions to political upheavals but can become drivers of growth in the new normal.