War with Iran 2.0: Scenarios and Implications
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“War with Iran 2.0: Scenarios and Implications”
The Agora Strategy Executive Briefing analyzes the rapidly escalating confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran following the large-scale strikes of February 28.
The briefing outlines possible conflict scenarios, assesses regional and global spillover risks, and examines implications for energy markets, shipping routes, financial volatility, sanctions enforcement, and multinational business exposure across the Gulf region. It further evaluates the strategic calculations of key actors.
We hope this analysis provides valuable guidance in navigating the evolving geopolitical and market environment.
Executive Summary
The US and Israel launched widespread attacks on Iran on February 28, sparking Iranian missile retaliation against Israel, US forces in the region and Arab countries.
Despite the early death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the campaigns ultimate goals – and hence its duration and costs – remain unclear.
The regime appears bent on widening the war, as it hit US forces but also civilian targets in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
A key factor will be how long Israel and the US can sustain the war in the face of potential regional conflagration, wild market reactions and depleting defensive stocks.
A prolonged conflict would not only disrupt energy flows but also trigger secondary sanctions, financial market volatility and accelerated geopolitical fragmentation, forcing multinational firms to reassess exposure to the Gulf region.