Another Financial Crisis “Made in the USA”?   The Agora Strategy Executive Briefing examines how rising U.S. public debt, geopolitical tensions—particularly the conflict with Iran—and new dynamics around tariffs, stablecoins, and the AI investment boom could interact to create new vulnerabilities for the global financial system. It also outlines the potential strategic implications for international businesses operating in an increasingly fragmented and politically driven financial environment. Executive Summary The US-Israeli war against Iran risks engulfing the wider region, threatening not just key energy producers but important trading hubs and financial centers. This risks exacerbating lingering concerns about global financial sustainability. Already, Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz has led to an oil price shock which, if sustained, could weigh on global economic growth and trigger extra government stimulus policies. It would also create a clear pass-through to headline inflation, especially in energy-importing economies in Europe and Asia. Governments may soon feel compelled to cushion the energy shock via subsidies, tax reductions on fuel, or price caps. While this may soften the immediate inflation and growth impact, it worsens their fiscal positions and adds to already elevated public debt levels. This, in turn, further reduces the global system’s fiscal buffers ahead of any future financial crisis. US public debt in particular is becoming rapidly untenable. If markets react strongly to the war perspective, President Donald Trump is likely to start new initiatives to preserve and deepen American dominance of financial markets. Also, a possible flight into the US dollar will impact the exchange rate and FED policy. More generally, power is shifting from markets to the political realm: US economic policy hinges on three interlinked levers—tariffs and active industrial policy, regulated dollar stablecoins under the GENIUS Act, and an AI‑driven and government supported investment boom—creating both growth opportunities for companies as well as new macro‑financial risk channels. The recent US Supreme Court‘s decision to invalidate some of Trump‘s tariffs will lead to a flurry of lawsuits and market confusion as the president will use other legal instruments to uphold his tariffs. With bleak prospects for the mid-term elections in the fall, the court decision together with some dissenting Republican votes in Congress indicates the president’s shrinkening support in the party. The combination of high leverage, concentrated AI bets and tighter links between digital finance and the Treasury market increases the speed and complexity of shock transmission, requiring more diversified funding, currency and risk strategies for firms. At the same time, cooperation and trust among partner governments and central banks to contain a potential crisis are eroding. Download the full Report:

In the Agora Strategy Group geopolitics podcast “The Future of Power”, Dr. Timo Blenk (CEO) invites decision-makers from diplomacy, business, politics and the military to discuss current geopolitical developments on a monthly basis. The core of this project is to provide information about the influences of these developments and to create a sound basis for decision-making.   This month's guest is Sabine von der Recke, member of the Management Board of OHB Systems AG and expert on space policy! In the 38th episode of our podcast, Dr. Blenk and Mrs. von der Recke talk about the new geopolitical significance of space, Europe's access to space, private drivers of innovation and the future of civil and military space technologies.   You can also find our podcast with subtitles on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDfLIBDfukU This month's highlights Geopolitics in space: The sovereignty and security dimensions of space Europe's access to space: Rockets, launch sites and private actors Future prospects: Partnerships, commercial use and the return to the moon     In-house announcements All other episodes of the podcast “Agora Strategy Group” website “Agora Strategy Group” on LinkedIn Current projects, publications & events of the Agora Strategy team Agora Institute Executive Membership Agora Strategy Report: Agora Strategy Risk Report 2026 Agora Strategy Report: EU-India Relations: Rising from the Shadow of Great Power Competition? Agora Strategy Institute Commentary: The Collective Freakout over the U.S. National Security Strategy - Rhetoric or Reality?

“War with Iran 2.0: Scenarios and Implications”   The Agora Strategy Executive Briefing analyzes the rapidly escalating confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran following the large-scale strikes of February 28. The briefing outlines possible conflict scenarios, assesses regional and global spillover risks, and examines implications for energy markets, shipping routes, financial volatility, sanctions enforcement, and multinational business exposure across the Gulf region. It further evaluates the strategic calculations of key actors. We hope this analysis provides valuable guidance in navigating the evolving geopolitical and market environment. Executive Summary The US and Israel launched widespread attacks on Iran on February 28, sparking Iranian missile retaliation against Israel, US forces in the region and Arab countries. Despite the early death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the campaigns ultimate goals – and hence its duration and costs – remain unclear. The regime appears bent on widening the war, as it hit US forces but also civilian targets in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. A key factor will be how long Israel and the US can sustain the war in the face of potential regional conflagration, wild market reactions and depleting defensive stocks. A prolonged conflict would not only disrupt energy flows but also trigger secondary sanctions, financial market volatility and accelerated geopolitical fragmentation, forcing multinational firms to reassess exposure to the Gulf region. Full report:

We are looking for curious, analytical thinkers with a strong interest in global politics, an entrepreneurial mindset, and the ambition to help grow our footprint with our clients' interests in mind. Career in Political Consulting We are looking for curious, analytical thinkers with a strong interest in global politics, an entrepreneurial mindset, and the ambition to help grow our footprint with our clients' interests in mind. What we are looking for We are convinced that excellent results can only be achieved with highly motivated and curious employees. Through the commitment, integrity, and drive of our dynamic team, we achieve the best possible result for our clients. Above all, open-mindedness, respect, tolerance, and an analytical, forward-looking attitude are essential to us. We also attach great importance to diversity in our team. We are looking for candidates with a strong understanding of geopolitical dynamics and political processes as well as a comprehensive understanding of client-specific needs from industry, data and tech, the public sector, or finance and investment. We particularly value candidates with an entrepreneurial mindset and a hands-on approach who are interested in geostrategic issues and in analyzing global interrelations. Fluency in English, excellent grades, and relevant professional experience are required. Knowledge of other foreign languages, especially Arabic, Mandarin, French, Russian, or Spanish is an advantage. Open positions We currently have no vacancies. What we need Cover letter outlining your interest and relevant prior experience Curriculum Vitae Transcripts (high school diploma and university transcripts) References (from previous positions and internships) Your application If you are looking for a highly motivated team, a stimulating work environment and a place where you can develop new ideas and perspectives for the benefit of global actors, we will be pleased to receive your application! Fabian Vetter COO & Partner Contact Home / About us / Career /

Agora Institute membership provides you with incisive and informed analysis of global developments relevant to your business. This is an unparalleled benefits package designed to keep you well informed and at the forefront of geopolitical and geo-economic developments important to your business. Agora Strategy Institute Membership Optimize your business strategy with best-in-class insights In today's international business environment, a deep understanding of the geopolitics and geo-economics shaping our world is essential. Firms face an increasing number of geopolitical risks, making it crucial for their leaders to have the intelligence needed to make informed decisions, protect their companies, and identify opportunities early on. With the Executive Membership of the Agora Strategy Institute, you can embrace this challenge , as it provides concise and well-founded analysis of global developments relevant for your business. The Agora Institute Membership offers an unparalleled suite of benefits designed to keep you well-informed and at the forefront of geopolitical and geo-economic developments impacting your business. Exclusive Access: Our in-house think tank, the Agora Strategy Institute, monitors geopolitical challenges and conducts comprehensive scenario planning. We analyze country risks for investment decisions and international business development. We assess the consequences of market-moving political developments and policy changes for industries and companies and deliver concrete, actionable recommendations for our clients. Monthly Briefing Calls: Stay ahead of the curve with exclusive calls featuring discussions with Agora experts on the most relevant geopolitical and geo-economic topics each month. Quarterly Geopolitical Calendar: Receive a curated calendar highlighting key developments to watch, empowering you to anticipate and navigate critical shifts in the global landscape. Bespoke Agora Executive Briefings: Access on-demand executive briefings, custom-tailored to address your specific business challenges and opportunities. Agora Event Invitations: Participate in our exclusive Business and Diplomacy Breakfasts and Lunches as well as other Agora Events, where knowledge and networking combine for truly insightful experiences. Agora Strategy Institute Membership Price: 4,000 euros per year Please sign up to receive your offer for Executive Membership of the Agora Strategy Institute: First name* Last name* E-Mail* Company Name* Message Send If you have any questions, please contact: institute@agora-strategy.com Home / Agora Strategy Institute / Executive Membership /

Agora Strategy defined the key criteria for selecting promising government clients and conducted a detailed stakeholder mapping analysis and prioritized key targets. Agora Strategy developed a concrete engagement strategy and supported the client during negotiation stage. Strategic engagement and political positioning Our 300 + senior advisors and fellows drawn from the fields of politics, diplomacy, security and defense, business and academia, are regionally and locally-connected across the world. Operating successfully in foreign markets requires a profound understanding of political, economic and social conditions. The Challenge An international financial consultancy and auditing company seeks to improve its global market reach. The expansion strategy’s key focus lies on reforming public governance structures. This includes public administration efficiency, public servant training, public finance and anti-corruption efforts. The client requires a comprehensive market entry strategy including a concrete concept of how to gain access to high-level political and administrative representatives and to avoid political pitfalls. The Agora Approach Together with its global network of on-the-ground experts, Agora firstly defines key criteria for promising government clients. They shall advance an internal reform process, bear high economic potential and simultaneously lack administrative infrastructure efficiency. Secondly, Agora conducts a detailed stakeholder mapping containing potential advocates as well as antagonists and prioritizes key targets. Most promising candidates are potential new EU and NATO member states, which have to fulfill access conditions and require assistance in doing so. Thirdly, Agora develops a concrete engagement strategy to approach political and administrative key decision-makers, supported by Senior Advisors with diplomatic, military and governmental background. Furthermore, Agora supports the client during the negotiation stage and provides political and diplomatic knowhow on country specifics and internal processes. Agora constantly keeps the client up to date and monitors global risks and investment opportunities relevant to the client. The Outcome The client signs three new government contracts during the first half-year period after the Agora kickoff Agora organizes roundtables in Southeast Europe & Middle East to position the client at highest level Agora develops a positioning strategy for the client-advised governments in Germany, France and the EU. This leads to an enlargement of the client’s mandates and a close strategic cooperation with Agora Agora continues to advise the client during the implementation of action recommendations and with global risk monitoring Home / Services / Strategy consulting /