Agora Strategy Risk Report 2026
- hoffmann58
- vor 6 Stunden
- 1 Min. Lesezeit
Everything, Everywhere, All at Once? The Age of Systemic Crisis
2026 marks the beginning of a new gopolitical era: The liberal rules-based world order is replaced by a fragmented landscape of competing blocs and contested norms.
This report is intended as your compass for 2026 as you navigate a course through a world in which familiar certainties have vanished, but where informed, deliberate action still matters.
Executive Summary
Risk #1: Great power confrontation describes the sharpening rivalry between the United States (U.S.) and China, combined with more assertive and transactional behavior by middle powers.
Risk #2: Geoeconomic fragmentation captures the breakdown of global markets into competing regulatory, technological, and trade spheres increasingly shaped by national security considerations.
Risk #3: Institutional erosion refers to the weakening of national and multilateral institutions, checks and balances, alliances, and international organizations that once supported stability and rule enforcement.
Risk #4: Cyber and hybrid conflict refers to continuous “grey-zone” operations—including cyberattacks, disinformation, espionage, and infrastructure sabotage — that increasingly target civilian and corporate actors.
Risk #5: Populism and polarization capture deepening social and political fractures, as radical actors mobilize economic grievances, cultural conflict, and disinformation through “people-versus-elites” narratives that erode trust in institutions.
Risk #6: Climate stress and resource scarcity are not only environmental challenges but also multipliers of political instability, humanitarian crises, and economic vulnerability.
Risk #7: Risks related to artificial intelligence and technological governance stem from the rapid deployment of powerful AI systems in the absence of coherent, interoperable global rules.