Merz Meets Trump: The Art of Expectation Management

Dean’s Comment on the meeting between President Trump and Federal Chancellor Merz by Ambassador (ret.) Dr. Peter Ammon

From the outset of his chancellorship, Friedrich Merz made it clear that he intended to take control of German foreign policy himself, guiding the country through geopolitical uncertainty with a steady hand. His face-to-face meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office, under the scrutiny of a partly hostile press corps and ideological hardliners such as Vice President Vance, was widely regarded as the first significant trial of his leadership on the global stage.

Germany is the main driver of the EU’s substantial trade surplus with the United States. A wide array of other contentious issues loomed over the meeting: Germany’s perceived free-riding on defence in the past; diverging positions on Russia and Ukraine; and clashing interpretations of democracy and free speech. Observers feared a political ambush reminiscent of those faced by Presidents Zelensky and Ramaphosa.

Merz wisely focused on managing expectations beforehand. Nobody anticipated that he could resolve Trump’s ongoing trade war with the EU during the meeting — an issue that was largely outside his direct control. For the German side, avoiding open confrontation while maintaining essential transatlantic ties — without appearing obsequious — would already be considered a major success.

Meanwhile, Trump is navigating a precarious phase of his presidency. His promise to end the Russia–Ukraine war in 24 hours remains unfulfilled. His global trade wars have stalled. Once-powerful alliances with tech giants such as Elon Musk and Tim Cook of Apple are showing signs of strain. To make matters worse, the bond market is issuing early warnings of an impending recession coupled with inflation.

Against this backdrop of fragility, Trump presented a conciliatory stance towards the Chancellor. He may have had little appetite for escalating tensions with the German chancellor, especially since Germany overtook Japan at the end of last year to become the world’s largest creditor nation. Trump even called Merz a friend and expressed his appreciation of US–German relations. What more could Merkel and Germany have asked for?