The Strait of Hormuz: When a Chokepoint Lives Up to Its Name
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The Strait of Hormuz: When a Chokepoint Lives Up to Its Name
Our latest report examines the geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences of the ongoing Hormuz crisis following the US-Iran conflict, including its impact on global energy markets, supply chains, shipping, inflation, and international business operations. It also analyzes the broader strategic implications for Europe, the US, China, and Asian economies, as well as the second- and third-order effects that companies should prepare for in the months ahead.
Executive Summary
Iran and the US have strong incentives to cut a deal but may struggle to do so until Trump accepts a suboptimal outcome or Iran collapses – or the fighting resumes. While benefitting from US difficulties, China faces significant trade disruption risks.
The largest energy supply shock in history is already causing disruption, and energy markets will tighten considerably further if a deal is not reached in the coming weeks.
In a prolonged crisis scenario, expect major economic disruption in Asia and fuel price hikes as well as shortages in the West, with ripple effects across sectors – from energy-intensive industries to chemicals, plastics, electronics, metals, and consumer goods.